Fall is for Home Buying!

The best time of year for buyers is now

Today is the Autumnal Equinox! What’s the big deal?

Astronomically, it means the sun is exactly above the equator (any other astronomy lovers in the house??!!).
Practically, it signifies the first day of fall as we begin to experience more nighttime hours than daytime hours.
Economically, it means its the start of the best home buying season in Sacramento!

Don’t believe me? Hear me out…in researching market statistics from the last decade, I’ve debunked the notion that spring & summer are the ideal “buying seasons.” While more people do indeed buy homes during those seasons than any other time of year, the conditions are not as favorable for buyers when compared to fall.

For buyers to have a competitive advantage when buying any product, they need three things:

1.) more buying options relative to the number of competing buyers;
2.) time to consider their options;
3.) stable prices to avoid a market frenzy or buyer’s remorse.

Below are three graphical illustrations that reveal how these factors evolve with the changing seasons, and how fall has consistently been the best season for Sacramento home buyers.

The first compares homes for sale (representing the number of sellers) to the homes that actually sold (representing the number of buyers). From these two figures, our industry calculates a metric known as “months of inventory.” In other words, how many sellers do we have compared to buyers? As a buyer, you want this number to be as high as possible, because it signifies more options for you and less competition against you.

I plotted the last 10 years of Sacramento County home stats, and you can see how in every year (except 2020 when Covid turned everything on its head) the fall season (represented by the dark orange line) has been higher than all of the other seasons. Every. Single Year. And 2023 is shaping up to be the same; as of the time of this post the months of inventory stands at 1.7 months, higher than any other season so far this year.

The next factor to favor buyers is time on the market. It is frustrating as a buyer to have homes sell at a feverish pace. Again, fall has shown to be the slowest season in nearly every year, as the average number of days a home sits on the market before selling is the most in fall.

Lastly, prices have remained stable in fall compared to other times of year. In the winter and spring, Sacramento home prices have been significant seasonal price increases nearly every year. Oddly, summer typically sees price decreases of nearly $10,000. Fall, however, has generally experienced stable home prices, illustrated by the dark orange line hovering right around the 0 line in the chart below (except for the odd fall we had last year).

If my graphs above aren’t convincing enough, consider this…REALTOR.com conducted market research and is predicting that the first week in October will be the most favorable week of the year for home buyers to get a great deal on a home!

While its important to understand market trends, buyers and sellers of real estate should avoid the tempting game of attempting to “time the market.” Rather, if you presently find yourself at a point in your life where buying a home makes sense for financial or familial reasons, then don’t wait until spring; act now. Give me a call to help you first secure your financing options, and then let’s get out there and find you a deal on a home this fall!