Purchasing rental properties requires a much more analytical approach than traditional home buying.  With my expertise in both the financial and sales aspects of real estate, I am well-prepared to help you become a successful real estate investor.  And remember, using a Realtor to buy a home doesn’t cost you anything…the seller pays the commission.  So don’t do it alone; ask me to be of service in this advantageous real estate market.  

As a real estate agent and mortgage broker, I cannot be a savior.  Rather, I see myself as your real estate “Sherpa.”  Sherpas, as you may know, are an ethnic group in Nepal who are famous as highly skilled and capable mountaineering guides in the Himalayas.  Unable to make the trek alone, summit-seeking climbers hire Sherpas to manage and navigate the dangerous trek up Mount Everest.  And while Sherpas make most Everest ascents possible, the chance of reaching the summit is ultimately out of their hands.

Buying, selling, or financing a home can seem like climbing a mountain.  It seems scary, danger exists if you make a wrong turn, and there are plenty of nay-sayers claiming you can’t do it.  To overcome the obstacles, you need a partner who is experienced, resilient, and calm under pressure.  But, be wary of the guide who guarantees you a trip to the summit; who are they to control the weather in such extreme conditions? 

I cannot guarantee you the perfect house at the lowest price with the fastest close.  I cannot guarantee you an underwriter will approve your loan.  And I cannot guarantee your home will sell in 2 weeks for full asking price.  There are too many variables to a transaction to pretend like I wield the real estate cosmos in my hands.  Again, I am not a savior.  I am, however, your real estate Sherpa, determined to use my experience, skills, and knowledge to help you make the best decisions possible during your next unpredictable real estate expedition.

As a real estate professional who closely studies current market trends and statistics, I found the headline way off-base.  I read further to see how they were making this claim.  What I found was fairly ironic.

On the back-page of the continued article, a graph (provided by the Sacramento Association of REALTORS) illustrates the historical median home price inSacramentocounty over the last decade.  Take a peek:

This graph clearly shows how, for the past two-and-a-half years, the median home price trend has largely flattened out and stabilized.  The “long-decline” happened from 2005-2008, so within the writer’s own article he disproved the misleading claim of his headline.

In my opinion, the headline is another example of news providers creating sensational stories rather than factual news.

It was a good reminder that even in our information over-load lives, it is best to slow down and read beyond the headlines.

Happy Valentine’s Day!  Now, I know today is a day devoted to love, but I figure it can’t hurt to sprinkle in some real estate chat too.  The two topics just might have more in common than you think.

Like love, our housing market can be impossible to understand, but that doesn’t stop us from trying to figure it out.  I think the mystic of the market (& love) captivates us to know what others think about it.  That’s probably why my annual market forecasts are the most widely read posts on this blog (read last year’s here).

So here it goes…my attempt to figure it out…Matt’s 2011 Market Forecast.  No love talk here, though; just economics.  As usual, my forecast focuses on three categories in the Sacramento real estate market: housing supply, housing demand, and mortgage interest rates.  I will recap 2010 and give you my best guess for what lies ahead in 2011!

Supply
’10 Projection: Inventory will be higher in 2010 (than 2009) as banks release more homes for sale and more short-sale listings are successfully sold.

’10 Result: Nearly 60% more homes are currently for sale compared to the end of 2009 (see chart above).  These increases were largely due to more homeowners looking to short-sale their properties and more banks releasing homes for sale.  Unfortunately, this increase in supply was not met by an increase in demand (more on that in a minute), and the amount of homes sitting on the market (known as inventory) is currently at an uncomfortably high 3.6 months.
’11 Projection: Short-sales and bank-owned properties will remain the primary sale types in Sacramento.  Additionally, an emerging sale type, the government-owned home, will become more prevalent this year.  The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) has been forced to foreclose on an increasing number of FHA-held loans originated in recent years.  While the Making Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternative (HAFA) program was mostly unsuccessful in 2010, I am optimistic that improvements will be made this year that enable more short-sale listings to successfully close.

Demand
’10 Projection: Demand will still be high as buyers confidently (and rightfully) believe the bottom of the cycle is here.
’10 Result:  The bottom certainly seems to be here with respect to Sacramento county’s median home price.  In fact, it has increased 1.6% over the last two years.  First-time home buyers and real estate investors continue to make up the majority of current home buyers.  The overall pace of sales last year declined remarkably after the federal 1^st-time home buyer tax credit expired in June 2010, indicating the market was propped up with artificial measures more than originally thought.
’11 Projection: Total home sales will be lower this year compared to 2010.  Although the bottom has arrived, it may be here to stay for some time.  Some potential home buyers may be reluctant to commit to a home purchase with looming job and other economic concerns and the absence of alluring tax credits.  Real estate investors, however, will be looking to purchase in abundance as rental rates are on the rise…11.6% nationally! (read this article for more details about these rising rental prices).

Interest Rates
’10 Projection: Despite wide-spread concern of drastically rising rates, I believe rates will stay well below 6%.
’10 Result: What a wild ride for mortgage rates in 2010!  While many worried of rates rising in April after The Fed stopped purchasing mortgages, rates actually plummeted for the first six months after the Feds exit from the market.  Towards end of the year, rates steadily climbed out of record-low territory.  In September I coined the 4^th quarter as “Crunch Time” (read September’s blog post here) and encouraged clients and readers to consider refinancing before rates rose.  Thankfully, many heard that message as I helped more folks refinance in the 4^th quarter of 2010 compared to any other 3-month period in my career.  30-year fixed rates rounded out the year hovering just below 5%, which was close to where they started the year.
’11 Projection: Mortgage rates will continue to be influened by politics more than economics, but in a very different way.  While I predict the Feds will stop trying to manipulate the mortgage and bond rate markets at some point this year, legislation from Congress will drastically impact mortgage rates.  MASSIVE financial reform regulations are scheduled to start in April 2011 that change how borrower’s closing costs are disclosed and paid for.  While unintended, these reform changes will increase the cost of obtaining a loan.  Furthermore, Congress is currently considering largely downsizing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s participation in the mortgage market.  If this is done, mortgage rates will likely increase as banks must shoulder the risk of holding more mortgage loans rather than selling them to Fannie or Freddie.

In summary, 2011 will not be a rebound year from recent market challenges, but rather a continuation on our road to recovery.  American job creation & stability, mortgage financing availability & affordabiliity, and unpredictable legislative action will direct the market this year.  A healthy real estate market is within our sights, but we likely have another 18 months before we see a balance between home supply and buyer demand.  Until then, it will remain a buyers market largely comprised of 1^st-time home buyers and real estate investors.

Do you have different thoughts and forecasts for 2011 housing?  I’d love for you to share them here.  Please leave a comment with your opinions, and let the chatter begin.

To this day I still adore the game.  I’m currently biding my time for my girls to be old enough to play (recent attempts just led to slobbery battleship pieces, crumpled bills, and unfinished games).

In the meantime, I am enjoying working with more folks than ever before playing real-life Monopoly buying and financing investment properties.  Due to low prices, low interest rates, rising rental demand, and favorable tax benefits, “playing” Monopoly has become a very wise financial move.

Those with means and foresight should be running to buy homes right now

Consider these recent examples of clients I’ve helped:
1.) Mr & Mrs K. purchased a rental property for $158,000 in Fair Oaks.  They are renting it to their daughter who is covering the mortgage payment, which is actually lower than the rent she was paying at her previous apartment.  Talk about a win-win!

2.) Mr. G is purchasing a $200,000 4-bedroom home that already has tenants.  After making a 25% down payment, his TOTAL monthly payment is $1028.  The tenants want to remain in the home, and continue to pay their $1475/month rent…positive cash-flow of $5400/year (annual rate of return of 10.8%).

Examples like these are fairly common in today’s market.  It’s not about finding the “diamond-in-the-rough”; it’s about simple supply and demand.  The supply of houses at decade-low prices is up.  At the same time, the demand of renters is up as every homeowner that has lost their home to foreclosure or short-sale is now looking for a home to rent.  Tremendous investment opportunities are readily available for folks with great credit, document-able income, and at least a 25% down payment.

Ironically, the Monopoly™ board game became a popular game in the mid 1930s, in the midst of The Great Depression.  I can’t help but guess folks of the time became fascinated with a game aimed at buying property when their real life finances were so dire.  This time around, in what many are calling The Great Recession, I hope that instead of playing a board game you consider your real-life opportunities to attain financial health through real estate investing.  My experience can help you find the right loan and best property for your investment preferences.  As I said earlier, I’ve been practicing for this my whole life .

Avery, our little smile factory, recently turned six months old.  It’s such a wonderful phase of baby-hood; every little detail of this world fascinates her.  She has become most curious and interested in food, as six months now marks the beginning of eating solids.  It’s amazing how fast medical advice changes, because only four years ago we were advised to begin solids with Maddison at four months.  Studies now show early introductions to food may lead to food allergies.

At first I was reluctant to buy into this allergy “theory.”  To be honest, Avery hasn’t been the best sleeper and I knew that eating solids would help her (as well as Mary & me!) sleep longer at night.  And besides, Maddison doesn’t have any food allergies despite starting solids at four months so what’s the big deal, right?  Ultimately, I decided to follow the medical advice of the professional rather than pretend I was a doctor myself.

Why am I writing about baby food (don’t worry, I’m getting to the point here)?  Because I’ve realized that doctors have the same difficult task as I do when it comes to advising clients with new information in an ever-changing world, and patients and clients alike must value the expertise their professionals possess.

Doctors say they “practice medicine” for a reason; their field is always changing.  Medical advice from years past often becomes outdated due to new research, emerging technologies, and evolving diseases.  And yet, many of us are slow to follow the new advice.  As I almost did, we dismiss the professional’s advice and assume we know better.

Similarly, the real estate market is always changing too.  Homeowners today are experiencing unprecedented dynamics when buying, selling, and financing their homes.  Unfortunately, many folks are relying on their personal experiences from years past or on antiquated advice from friends, parents and neighbors to guide their decisions in today’s tumultuous and complex marketplace.  Doing so can cost them a tremendous amount of headache, heartache, and money.

The simple truth is this: yesterday’s good advice can become today’s bad advice when you don’t keep up with the times.  Our world changes quickly, so seek professional counsel in areas outside of your comfort zone.  Like a doctor, I devote a large portion of my mortgage and real estate “practice” to staying current on the trends of the markets so I can best help you make informed decisions in a fast-paced industry.  I am committed to provide up-to-date expertise to you and to those you refer.  As always, thank you for reading.

While the biggest political news of last week was surely the controversial Health Care Reform Bill, California also passed a housing bill that is sure to aid the state’s housing market.  A few months ago I shared that Governor Schwarzenegger, in his January State of the State address, said he wanted to create state tax credits for California home buyers. Today, I’m happy to report that last Thursday he signed a bill that gives both first-time home buyers and buyers of new homes state tax credits up to $10,000.

As I understand it, this tax credit is IN ADDITION to the current $8,000 Federal tax credit that is available until April 30th, 2010.  This means that if you are a first-time home buyer in California and get into contract to purchase a primary residence in the next 30 days, you could be eligible for $18,000 in tax credits!!!  Quite incredible.

But as lucrative as this new California bill sounds, it is as equally illusive.  Let me explain.

California passed a similar $100 million bill in 2009 that gave credits to buyers of new homes only, and funding ran out in 4 short months, even in a year that saw record-low California new home sales.  This latest bill provides the same $100 million for new home buyers and an additional $100 million for 1st time home buyers. through December 2010 OR until funding is exhausted.  With housing affordability at reasonable levels in many parts of the state, expect the funding for both of these credits to also dry up quickly; possibly within weeks after the May 1st commencement date!!!  Consider these numbers:

• In 2009, 47% of California home buyers were 1st-time home buyers
• The California Association of REALTORS projects that 527,500 California single family homes will be sold in 2010, which means over 250,000 homes could be sold to 1st-time home buyers
• With enough funding for approximately 10,000 1st-time home buyers, this means only 4% of 1st timers will get the credit
• If 20,000 homes sold each month are to first-time home buyers (roughly 250K divided by 12 months), this means funding will be exhausted within 2 weeks

So, what’s the moral of the story?  Incentives (especially illusive ones) should not drive the decision to purchase a home.  Yes, another amazing incentive has been thrown at 1st-time home buyers, but it is simply the cherry on top of an already delicious ice cream sundae.  If you are considering home ownership, good for you!  Homes in most areas are more affordable now than a decade ago.  But, be sure you’re buying to enjoy the whole sundae (home), not just the maraschino cherries (tax credits & low interest rates). 

*Please consult a tax professional before assuming you may qualify for any of the aforementioned state or federal tax credits.