(Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke can’t go it alone when it comes to reviving the U.S.housing market.

Fed policy makers, who start a two-day meeting today, are considering buying mortgage-backed securities to push down borrowing costs and help homeowners refinance their debt. That would reduce monthly payments, freeing up cash for other purchases that could spur the economy and reduce unemployment, Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo said Oct. 20.

Such an effort would save homeowners $60 billion to $80 billion a year, or about 0.5 percent of gross domestic product, so long as the Obama administration succeeds in helping homeowners through a stepped-up refinancing aid plan, said Joseph Gagnon, a former Fed economist. Should the program fail, Fed asset-buying would probably provide homeowners less than half its potential savings, said Gagnon, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics inWashington.

“The Achilles’heel of the Fed’s efforts so far has been that the monetary-policy transmission has not worked as they would like because of, in large part, the inability of consumers to get loans” for homes and other purchases, said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies & Co. in New York.

Refinancing Program

(The Federal Housing Finance Agency said Oct. 24 it will let qualified homeowners refinance mortgages regardless of how much their houses have dropped in value, expanding terms of the 2009 Home Affordable Refinance Program, which has fallen 80 percent short of the goal of reaching 5 million borrowers. The FHFA estimates the changes will help generate about 900,000 refinanced loans by the end of 2013. If the alterations to the so-called HARP plan don’t spur refinancing, any Fed purchases of mortgage bonds would bring limited benefits, said McCarthy, a former Fed researcher.

(The Federal Open Market Committee, which has kept its benchmark interest rate near zero since December 2008, plans tomorrow to release a statement and economic projections from governors and regional Fed presidents. Bernanke is scheduled to hold a press conference at 2:15 p.m., his first since June and third since the Fed started the briefings in April.

(Central bank officials may not be ready this week to pull the trigger on more bond-buying because of an increase this year in core inflation, which excludes food and fuel costs, Gagnon said. Once policy makers see slowing price gains for another month or two, “they will then feel empowered, indeed driven,” to restart asset purchases, he said.

‘Top of the List’

(Tarullo, in a speech in New York last month, said additional mortgage-securities purchases should “move back up toward the top of the list of options” because “the aggregate -demand effect should be felt not just in new-home purchases, but also in the added purchasing power of existing homeowners who are able to refinance.” Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen said Oct. 21 that a third round of asset purchases “might become appropriate” if the economy’s state warranted additional stimulus.

(“I don’t know how you could embark on a program of buying agency mortgages thinking you’re going to stimulate more refinancing,” said Bryan Whalen, co-head of mortgage bonds at Los Angeles-based TCW Group Inc., which oversees $120 billion in assets. “It’s not a rate issue, it’s a qualification issue.”

(The average rate on a typical 30-year fixed mortgage fell to a record low 3.94 percent in October, from this year’s high of 5.05 percent, before climbing to 4.10 percent last week, according to Freddie Mac survey data. In September, the FOMC voted to reinvest proceeds from maturing housing debt into mortgage-backed securities, switching from Treasuries.

Record Easing

(New York Fed President William C. Dudley said Oct. 24 that removing “impediments” to the transmission of monetary stimulus would make the central bank’s record easing more effective. The FHFA’s plan to make it easier for borrowers with high loan-to-value ratios to refinance is “a step in the right direction,” he said, adding he hoped additional measures would follow.

(Bernanke said in congressional testimony last month that the Fed needs help from other branches of government to aid the economy. “Monetary policy can be a powerful tool, but it is not a panacea for the problems currently faced by theU.S.economy,” he told the Joint Economic Committee Oct. 4.

(Gagnon urged the central bank to target a 30-year mortgage rate of 3 percent to 3.5 percent by buying as much as $2 trillion of mortgage-backed securities. While boosting stocks and supporting property prices, Fed asset purchases may help create at least 3 million jobs, he said in an Oct. 24 blog titled “The Last Bullet.”

Out of Reach

(“The Fed could do stuff, and it would help, but there would be a lot of people who without HARP couldn’t take advantage of it,” Gagnon said in a telephone interview.

(Reduced home prices and tightened lending standards have slowed the pace of replacement home loans. The Mortgage Bankers Association forecast on Oct. 11 that refinancing this year would total $783 billion, down from $1.1 trillion last year, even amid lower interest rates. Refinancing peaked at a record $2.5 trillion in 2003.

(Stanford University Professor John Taylor, best known for the Taylor Rule formula that suggests how the Fed should set its benchmark interest rate, said more Fed purchases of mortgage bonds are unlikely to reduce loan rates.

(Another round of purchases wouldn’t cut rates “appreciably, and not really in any predictable way,” Taylor, an economic adviser to House Republican lawmakers, said in a phone interview.

‘Difficult to Detect’

(Taylor and one of his graduate students, Johannes Stroebel, wrote a paper arguing that “it is difficult to detect a significant effect” from Fed purchases of mortgage bonds totaling $1.25 trillion from January 2009 to March 2010.

(Gagnon, co-author of a Fed study that found the bond buying lowered borrowing costs and helped the economy, disputed Stroebel andTaylor’s findings, saying they focused on the impact of the actual purchases, rather than the announcement.

(A May 2011 Bank of Canada review of research into central bank bond-buying said the Fed’s MBS purchases “appear to have eased mortgage-market conditions.” At the same time, the Fed’s $600 billion, second round of bond purchases, undertaken from November 2010 through June of this year, probably had a “more modest” effect because of fewer “distortions” in financial markets and the economy at the time, the Canadian central bank’s researchers said.

(Without the administration program sparking more refinancing, Fed asset purchases won’t be of much help to the housing market, says Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Pierpont Securities LLC inStamford,Connecticut, who opposes further bond-buying.

(“If the pipeline is stuck, then it doesn’t matter if mortgage rates are 4 percent, 3.5 percent or zero,” said Stanley, a former Richmond Fed researcher.

As a real estate agent and mortgage broker, I cannot be a savior.  Rather, I see myself as your real estate “Sherpa.”  Sherpas, as you may know, are an ethnic group in Nepal who are famous as highly skilled and capable mountaineering guides in the Himalayas.  Unable to make the trek alone, summit-seeking climbers hire Sherpas to manage and navigate the dangerous trek up Mount Everest.  And while Sherpas make most Everest ascents possible, the chance of reaching the summit is ultimately out of their hands.

Buying, selling, or financing a home can seem like climbing a mountain.  It seems scary, danger exists if you make a wrong turn, and there are plenty of nay-sayers claiming you can’t do it.  To overcome the obstacles, you need a partner who is experienced, resilient, and calm under pressure.  But, be wary of the guide who guarantees you a trip to the summit; who are they to control the weather in such extreme conditions? 

I cannot guarantee you the perfect house at the lowest price with the fastest close.  I cannot guarantee you an underwriter will approve your loan.  And I cannot guarantee your home will sell in 2 weeks for full asking price.  There are too many variables to a transaction to pretend like I wield the real estate cosmos in my hands.  Again, I am not a savior.  I am, however, your real estate Sherpa, determined to use my experience, skills, and knowledge to help you make the best decisions possible during your next unpredictable real estate expedition.

Happy Valentine’s Day!  Now, I know today is a day devoted to love, but I figure it can’t hurt to sprinkle in some real estate chat too.  The two topics just might have more in common than you think.

Like love, our housing market can be impossible to understand, but that doesn’t stop us from trying to figure it out.  I think the mystic of the market (& love) captivates us to know what others think about it.  That’s probably why my annual market forecasts are the most widely read posts on this blog (read last year’s here).

So here it goes…my attempt to figure it out…Matt’s 2011 Market Forecast.  No love talk here, though; just economics.  As usual, my forecast focuses on three categories in the Sacramento real estate market: housing supply, housing demand, and mortgage interest rates.  I will recap 2010 and give you my best guess for what lies ahead in 2011!

Supply
’10 Projection: Inventory will be higher in 2010 (than 2009) as banks release more homes for sale and more short-sale listings are successfully sold.

’10 Result: Nearly 60% more homes are currently for sale compared to the end of 2009 (see chart above).  These increases were largely due to more homeowners looking to short-sale their properties and more banks releasing homes for sale.  Unfortunately, this increase in supply was not met by an increase in demand (more on that in a minute), and the amount of homes sitting on the market (known as inventory) is currently at an uncomfortably high 3.6 months.
’11 Projection: Short-sales and bank-owned properties will remain the primary sale types in Sacramento.  Additionally, an emerging sale type, the government-owned home, will become more prevalent this year.  The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) has been forced to foreclose on an increasing number of FHA-held loans originated in recent years.  While the Making Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternative (HAFA) program was mostly unsuccessful in 2010, I am optimistic that improvements will be made this year that enable more short-sale listings to successfully close.

Demand
’10 Projection: Demand will still be high as buyers confidently (and rightfully) believe the bottom of the cycle is here.
’10 Result:  The bottom certainly seems to be here with respect to Sacramento county’s median home price.  In fact, it has increased 1.6% over the last two years.  First-time home buyers and real estate investors continue to make up the majority of current home buyers.  The overall pace of sales last year declined remarkably after the federal 1^st-time home buyer tax credit expired in June 2010, indicating the market was propped up with artificial measures more than originally thought.
’11 Projection: Total home sales will be lower this year compared to 2010.  Although the bottom has arrived, it may be here to stay for some time.  Some potential home buyers may be reluctant to commit to a home purchase with looming job and other economic concerns and the absence of alluring tax credits.  Real estate investors, however, will be looking to purchase in abundance as rental rates are on the rise…11.6% nationally! (read this article for more details about these rising rental prices).

Interest Rates
’10 Projection: Despite wide-spread concern of drastically rising rates, I believe rates will stay well below 6%.
’10 Result: What a wild ride for mortgage rates in 2010!  While many worried of rates rising in April after The Fed stopped purchasing mortgages, rates actually plummeted for the first six months after the Feds exit from the market.  Towards end of the year, rates steadily climbed out of record-low territory.  In September I coined the 4^th quarter as “Crunch Time” (read September’s blog post here) and encouraged clients and readers to consider refinancing before rates rose.  Thankfully, many heard that message as I helped more folks refinance in the 4^th quarter of 2010 compared to any other 3-month period in my career.  30-year fixed rates rounded out the year hovering just below 5%, which was close to where they started the year.
’11 Projection: Mortgage rates will continue to be influened by politics more than economics, but in a very different way.  While I predict the Feds will stop trying to manipulate the mortgage and bond rate markets at some point this year, legislation from Congress will drastically impact mortgage rates.  MASSIVE financial reform regulations are scheduled to start in April 2011 that change how borrower’s closing costs are disclosed and paid for.  While unintended, these reform changes will increase the cost of obtaining a loan.  Furthermore, Congress is currently considering largely downsizing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s participation in the mortgage market.  If this is done, mortgage rates will likely increase as banks must shoulder the risk of holding more mortgage loans rather than selling them to Fannie or Freddie.

In summary, 2011 will not be a rebound year from recent market challenges, but rather a continuation on our road to recovery.  American job creation & stability, mortgage financing availability & affordabiliity, and unpredictable legislative action will direct the market this year.  A healthy real estate market is within our sights, but we likely have another 18 months before we see a balance between home supply and buyer demand.  Until then, it will remain a buyers market largely comprised of 1^st-time home buyers and real estate investors.

Do you have different thoughts and forecasts for 2011 housing?  I’d love for you to share them here.  Please leave a comment with your opinions, and let the chatter begin.

To this day I still adore the game.  I’m currently biding my time for my girls to be old enough to play (recent attempts just led to slobbery battleship pieces, crumpled bills, and unfinished games).

In the meantime, I am enjoying working with more folks than ever before playing real-life Monopoly buying and financing investment properties.  Due to low prices, low interest rates, rising rental demand, and favorable tax benefits, “playing” Monopoly has become a very wise financial move.

Those with means and foresight should be running to buy homes right now

Consider these recent examples of clients I’ve helped:
1.) Mr & Mrs K. purchased a rental property for $158,000 in Fair Oaks.  They are renting it to their daughter who is covering the mortgage payment, which is actually lower than the rent she was paying at her previous apartment.  Talk about a win-win!

2.) Mr. G is purchasing a $200,000 4-bedroom home that already has tenants.  After making a 25% down payment, his TOTAL monthly payment is $1028.  The tenants want to remain in the home, and continue to pay their $1475/month rent…positive cash-flow of $5400/year (annual rate of return of 10.8%).

Examples like these are fairly common in today’s market.  It’s not about finding the “diamond-in-the-rough”; it’s about simple supply and demand.  The supply of houses at decade-low prices is up.  At the same time, the demand of renters is up as every homeowner that has lost their home to foreclosure or short-sale is now looking for a home to rent.  Tremendous investment opportunities are readily available for folks with great credit, document-able income, and at least a 25% down payment.

Ironically, the Monopoly™ board game became a popular game in the mid 1930s, in the midst of The Great Depression.  I can’t help but guess folks of the time became fascinated with a game aimed at buying property when their real life finances were so dire.  This time around, in what many are calling The Great Recession, I hope that instead of playing a board game you consider your real-life opportunities to attain financial health through real estate investing.  My experience can help you find the right loan and best property for your investment preferences.  As I said earlier, I’ve been practicing for this my whole life .

Mr. B. obtained a $300,000 mortgage at 6% in 2001.  His payment is $1798/month, and now his mortgage balance is $257,000 with 21 years left.  By refinancing to a 15 year fixed at 3.75%, his payment will be $70/higher and he will pay his mortgage off 6 years faster…avoiding $130,000 in monthly payments!!!  In short, Mr. B. will pay $70/month and save $130,000…talk about a wise investment!

Numbers don’t lie.  Give us a call so we can discuss your options of becoming mortgage-free faster than ever before.

I can’t believe we’re already heading into the final quarter of 2010.  It seems that Avery, my youngest daughter, was born just a few weeks ago, but now she’s walking around and Mary is sending out invites for her 1^st birthday party next month!  What happened?   

Looking forward…the coming months typically are the slowest ones of the year for my business.  After all, it’s more enjoyable for a homeowner to plan a holiday party than to take time to sell, buy, or refinance their home! This year’s 4^th quarter, however, homeowners have much more at stake with their finances. 

Mortgage rates have hit ROCK BOTTOM, enabling homeowners to save money, consolidate debt, or reposition home equity to other investments during these difficult economic times.  Unfortunately, many have not even inquired or pursued their refinance options.  Some hesitate upon hearing horror stories about other’s experiences; many wrongly assume they don’t qualify. 

If you have not yet assessed your refinance options, I urge you to look at the upcoming 4th quarter as “crunch time” and act now before rates go back up.  Crunch-time players don’t hesitate; they know what’s at stake and they take action.  Do you need to take action and save  money in this economy?  In other words…will you be a crunch-time player with your mortgage? 

To encourage you to step up your game, I am going to offer a FREE GIFT to those who contact me to review their refinance options.  There’s no pressure here; just an honest professional looking to honestly serve you before time runs out. 

Be Like Mike…step up and take the shot at refinancing before time runs out.

 In sports, the 4^th quarter is the last chance to make a difference as the clock winds down and the pressure rises up.  The same is true for your mortgage as we enter the year’s 4th quarter.  Rates will likely be heading higher as we approach the November mid-term elections (politics play a bigger role in the mortgage market than ever before)…so time is running out. 

As a special offer only for only my blog readers, I will give a $10 iTunes gift card* for calling me in crunch-time and simply discussing your refinance options.  If we discover options, we’ll celebrate the wise play you made and the money I’ll help you save.  If not, you at least get to download some music & get to know me so you have a mortgage broker and REALTOR to trust down the road when you need to buy, sell, or finance real estate.

I look forward to hearing from you.

*To qualify for the $10 iTunes gift card, just give me a call and complete a loan application within the next 30 days.  That’s it!

One of my (and my clients’!) favorite refinance options is back…the no-cost refinance.   They were missing from the market for the last 18 months for a number of reasons, but now they’ve returned and I already have many clients taking advantage of them.  These refinance programs allow a homeowner to refinance to a lower rate and not pay a penny in closing costs.  Like everything, there are pros and cons to these creative options.  Let me explain further.

When a borrower considers the cost of a loan, they must factor two things: the rate and the closing costs.  Many focus on getting the lowest rate possible, but borrowers must realize that lower rates always have higher fees.  Conversely, higher rates have lower fees…sometimes no fees at all.  That’s where the no-cost option comes into play.

A no-cost refinance allows the borrower to pay a slightly higher rate than the standard rate offered by the bank and in return the bank pays the closing costs for them.  There truly are no closing costs paid or financed by the borrower.  These options come in handy for the following homeowners who want to reduce their monthly payment but:

1.) plan to sell their home in the near future, thus shouldn’t incur significant closing costs for short-term monthly savings
2.) can’t afford to pay or finance closing costs
3.) recently paid closing costs on a loan (either to buy their home or to do a previous refinance) and can’t stomach coughing up thousands more again to refinance
4.) prefer to “hedge their bets,” meaning they’d like to refinance for free now yet want to save their closing cost money for later as they believe interest rates may fall further in the near future.

Most of the no-cost refinances I’m quoting on 30-year fixed loans are currently at 5% (for loans over $250,000).  Would you like a 5% rate for free?  That’s not a bad deal.  If you’re interested, call me to discuss your options further.  Don’t assume you don’t qualify.  Also, if you are a reader and client who has taken advantage of a no-cost refinance in the past, please post a comment sharing your experience with and motivation for a no-cost refinance.

Avery, our little smile factory, recently turned six months old.  It’s such a wonderful phase of baby-hood; every little detail of this world fascinates her.  She has become most curious and interested in food, as six months now marks the beginning of eating solids.  It’s amazing how fast medical advice changes, because only four years ago we were advised to begin solids with Maddison at four months.  Studies now show early introductions to food may lead to food allergies.

At first I was reluctant to buy into this allergy “theory.”  To be honest, Avery hasn’t been the best sleeper and I knew that eating solids would help her (as well as Mary & me!) sleep longer at night.  And besides, Maddison doesn’t have any food allergies despite starting solids at four months so what’s the big deal, right?  Ultimately, I decided to follow the medical advice of the professional rather than pretend I was a doctor myself.

Why am I writing about baby food (don’t worry, I’m getting to the point here)?  Because I’ve realized that doctors have the same difficult task as I do when it comes to advising clients with new information in an ever-changing world, and patients and clients alike must value the expertise their professionals possess.

Doctors say they “practice medicine” for a reason; their field is always changing.  Medical advice from years past often becomes outdated due to new research, emerging technologies, and evolving diseases.  And yet, many of us are slow to follow the new advice.  As I almost did, we dismiss the professional’s advice and assume we know better.

Similarly, the real estate market is always changing too.  Homeowners today are experiencing unprecedented dynamics when buying, selling, and financing their homes.  Unfortunately, many folks are relying on their personal experiences from years past or on antiquated advice from friends, parents and neighbors to guide their decisions in today’s tumultuous and complex marketplace.  Doing so can cost them a tremendous amount of headache, heartache, and money.

The simple truth is this: yesterday’s good advice can become today’s bad advice when you don’t keep up with the times.  Our world changes quickly, so seek professional counsel in areas outside of your comfort zone.  Like a doctor, I devote a large portion of my mortgage and real estate “practice” to staying current on the trends of the markets so I can best help you make informed decisions in a fast-paced industry.  I am committed to provide up-to-date expertise to you and to those you refer.  As always, thank you for reading.

In February I posted in my 2010 Market Forecast that I thought mortgage rates would remain low this year in spite of the phase-out of the Fed’s massive involvement in the mortgage-backed-securities market.  That phase-out was completed earlier this week, and just today I read an article  that supports my theory.  Yes, the Fed is out, but private investors are back buying mortgages, and willing to do so at lower yields meaning lower interest rates for borrowers.

The article has a fair amount of financial jargon, but the crux of it is investors are back buying mortgages because of 1.) more capital due to improving financial markets; 2.) lower risk due to tighter lending requirements and stabilizing real estate markets; & 3.) continued subdued inflation.  Read the whole Bllomberg article written by  Kathleen M. Howley by clicking this link.